The Long Swell
Updated 2026-09-16

Where is the climate abnormal this week, and how bad?

Paris has had 15 times more hot days this summer than its 1961-1990 average.

Where, this week 21 drawn · 5 fire countries past their own record week · 54 crop countries with a region at a record low, against an average of 33 · ocean field observed 7 days to 2026-09-13
NIÑO 3.4  +2.9 °CMontenegro13.2x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksUganda3.9x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksPapua New Guinea3.6x its average week · heaviest of 15 observed weeksGuatemala10 of 22 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Angola6 of 17 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Chad5 of 23 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Sudan5 of 18 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26United Republic of Tanzania5 of 31 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Cambodia5 of 26 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Peru5 of 24 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Malaysia4 of 14 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Puerto Rico4 of 8 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26El Salvador4 of 14 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Viet Nam4 of 63 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Iran (Islamic Republic of)4 of 31 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Colombia3 of 28 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Honduras3 of 17 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Dominican Republic3 of 10 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Philippines3 of 17 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Indonesia3 of 34 regions at a record low · each lowest of 26Canada3 of 220 regions at a record low · each lowest of 2654 citiesaggregated · city records live on the Heat page

Only what clears a stated bar is drawn: fires at three times its own same-week mean or more, crops with three or more regions at a record low. 36 more crop countries and 2 more fire countries passed their own record without clearing it; each is counted on its channel page. Marks are sized within a channel, never across. How this is built →

The readings  ·  one slot per channel each row is its channel’s own selection, with its evidence beside it
Fires
Montenegro  Well clear of its 2020 record week
13.2×
same-week mean · heaviest of 15 observed weeks
Heat
24 of 54 cities  More hot days than in any year on record
24
each against its own 95th percentile · at least 24 of 54 measured
Crops
Chad  5 of its 23 regions at a record low
5 of 23
1st most stressed of 26 observations, 2001-2026
five of six instruments read together · dekad to 10 September
Chips mark attribution where a channel runs it. Fires does; Heat and Crops do not assess attribution, so the column is absent rather than empty. Fires, 8 countries →  ·  Heat, 54 cities →  ·  Crops, 54 countries →
The wave  ·  El Niño 2026-27 99% chance of a peak beyond +2.5 °C, 72% beyond +3.5 The +3.5 figure is ours, and no model produces it: five of six models put it at 90% or above and one at 0% or below, with none in between. CPC’s own table implies 15%. The smallest ensembles carry 10 members, so those figures move in 10-point steps. Niño 3.4 +2.9 °C · issue 2026-09-14 · the El Niño tracker →
Notes
Written by hand, about what the instruments are showing.
There is a great amount of data sitting in different databases, and getting an answer out of it is another thing entirely. So I started building that. How bad is it? · 10 August 2026 · read the note →
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Channels  ·  each reads one domain against its own baselines
El Niñothe winter peak, trackedweekly
Fireshotspots vs same-week baselinesdaily
Heatcity days and nights vs station recordsweekly
Cropscrop regions vs their own recordevery 10 days
Noteswritten by handoccasional
Floods, Econeach needs its own baseline first in development
Lepik, K. (2026). The Long Swell. thelongswell.com · every issue archived, immutable · disagreements surfaced, not averaged